Author Topic: WoW is dying!  (Read 5214 times)

Winston

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2014, 05:50:32 PM »
That mmo-champion graph does not fill me with the glow of optimism. I don't remember the exact dates each expansion was released, and I'm feeling too lazy right now to look it up, but when I look at that chart I see that rate of membership decline for the current expansion is the worst so far. One slight upward bump near the end of the graph does not change that.

However, as I've said elsewhere, the WoD expansion looks to be more compelling than the current one. A good chunk of the downward trend may be due to content, rather than simple MMO/WoW burnout.

Does anyone know how the other MMOs are doing? Is there some clear trend; e.g., people are leaving WoW to go to Everquest or something? Or are people leaving MMOs altogether?

I unlazied a little: http://www.wowwiki.com/Timeline_%28World_of_Warcraft%29

What it looks like to the unaided and possibly-biased eye is that the rate of WoW growth declined somewhat during WotLK (speculation: saturation, because pretty much everyone who wanted to play WoW was already doing so) but membership was still growing. With the release of Cata, membership started to decline. It bumped up again with the release of MoP, but returned to declining right after the release, with membership stabilizing in the last six months.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 06:16:57 PM by Winston »
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Marco

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2014, 02:44:46 PM »
I almost missed this: there was another earnings call, stating that WoW subscribership dropped from 7.8 million to 7.6 million between December 2013 and March 2014.  mmo-champion has an updated graph:

http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/3968-WoW-Down-to-7-6-Million-Subscribers

Patch 5.4 released in September 2013, so we're talking the difference between subscriber numbers between roughly month 4 and month 7 of the final raid.  So a slight downturn is expected, and I expect a larger downturn for the following quarter.

Marco

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2014, 02:16:26 PM »
The latest investor call has WoW down 800K subs to 6.8 million as of June 2014.  There will probably be one more bad quarter before Warlords since it's unlikely to be out before the end of September.

http://www.wowhead.com/news=242357/wow-drops-to-6-8m-subs-blizzards-nagrand-zone-preview-heart-of-the-valorous-retu

Marco

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2014, 10:45:17 PM »
We're up to 7.4 million subscribers as of September 30, up 600K from the previous data point.  I was expecting a brutal quarter due to the extended content lull, but apparently not.

http://blizzard.gamespress.com/THE-INVASION-OF-THE-IRON-HORDE-HAS-BEGUN-WARLORDS-OF-DRAENOR-PRELAUNCH
http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/4417-WoW-Up-to-7-4-Million-Subscribers-Garrosh-Heirlooms-MoP-in-Base-Game-Chopper-Mount

Tweed

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2014, 04:18:24 AM »
That is interesting. I had also expected a brutal quarter but honestly, I'm not even sure we can call this a content "lull" anymore. We need a stronger word. But then when I think about it, a bunch of people I know who haven't been around for a long time came back in recent weeks and seem to be really active.

Kharvek

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2014, 08:07:18 AM »
There could also be people coming back from their vacations on other MMO's.  A lull hits and they jump ship and play Wildstar/SW:TOR or something for awhile and then come back.  Those other MMO's have essentially the same gameplay mechanics without ten years to polish it.  I've known a lot of people who've done this and they usually come back to WoW at some point.  (Not everyone, I have a couple friends who've stuck with TOR)

WoW might be getting some of the Wildstar players back.

Kudger

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2014, 08:20:31 AM »
Subs always hit a hight point in the buildup to the next expansion. I think the highest WoW subs have ever been was in the quarter before Cata came out, if memory serves.


Marco

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2014, 08:37:44 AM »
The linked mmo-champion article has a graph.  It's true that the high points of classic, BC, and Wrath were all at the end of the expansion, but the game was also on an upward trend back then.  For Cataclysm, it appears that subs were significantly down at the end of the expansion.

Kudger

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2014, 08:57:25 AM »
True true, what I meant was that the subs broke the downward trend to shoot up a fair bit in the immediate buildup to a new expansion at the end of Cata. What I'm really interested in seeing is how subs look 6 months into WoD to see if it breaks the current downward trend or if this is just another temporary uptick like we saw going into MoP.

Marco

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2014, 09:01:30 AM »
True true, what I meant was that the subs broke the downward trend to shoot up a fair bit in the immediate buildup to a new expansion at the end of Cata.
I don't think we have a data point to support that.  There's a decline to 9.1 million subs for July 2012, and then an increase to 10 million subs for September 2012.  I believe these figures are always for the end of the month, which means the 10 million subscribers number postdates the September 25 launch date for Mists of Pandaria.

Kudger

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2014, 10:04:54 PM »
That's fair, without solid proof we can't break down what subs in between those two data points were for sure. As for the pre-cata numbers, I do think it's reasonable to say that the uptick to 12 million was primarily due to anticipation of the upcoming expansion and experiencing the redone old world zones (which I believe went live before Cata shipped). It's probably safe to say that folks weren't resubbing for Ruby Sanctum  :)

I remember resubbing a month before Cata to complete my Lorewalker before the changes (was only missing like 60 quests from Kalimdor) and discovered, much to my dismay, that the revamp was already in place and I had to redo every single zone in Kalimdor to finally get it  :-X

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Edalia

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #27 on: November 19, 2014, 02:31:10 PM »
This xpac's content is so fun so far, I can imagine that number will rise.
o/\o

Gwyddyon

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2014, 05:41:26 AM »
Those goddamned 10 million people are taking up instance slots and causing me to crash out of my garrison >_<
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Kharvek

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Re: WoW is dying!
« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2014, 03:13:19 PM »
Wow I never thought they'd get over 10 million again.  However WoD has been a really well done expansion.  I've liked the zones, stories and content way more than I did Pandaria on the little chance I"ve had to play.

I really was expecting SOMETHING to topple WoW by now for king of this castle but now?  I think it's going to stay there.  The castle might shrink, but we've seen a ton of competitors come and go...and I think people are finally realizing they can't beat WoW at its own game.